Meaningful Macau GGR recovery on track to kick in for October Golden Week: analysts

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Macaus depressed GGR figure for August suggests a slower than hoped September, however the outlook is positive for a strong October Golden Week according to analysts.

Although August GGR of MOP$4.44 billion was 47.4% lower than July with a daily run rate of MOP$143 million, JP Morgans DS Kim, Amanda Cheng and Livy Lyu noted that the rate had improved to MOP$230 per day during the last week of August.

While one week doesnt make a trend, a near instant recovery post border normalization bodes well for upcoming high season in 4Q, including the October Golden Week, they wrote in a Wednesday note.

September is unlikely to be upbeat given seasonality, but were hopeful to see GGR back on solid recovery path in October which we expect to print a post-pandemic high of ~MOP$350 million per day versus Mays MOP$337 million per day.

The rising trend comes with most restrictions between Macau and mainland China now eased, including the lifting of the validity period for COVID-19 tests from 48 hours to 7 days for arrivals. There are still restrictions for arrivals from 13 cities in seven provinces, however.

Brokerage Bernstein said it expects GGR to increase by around 70% in September compared with August but has also forecast a more meaningful uptick starting in October.