Macau weekly GGR down 14% but July tracking well above June: Bernstein

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Macaus daily gross gaming revenue was down 14% week-on-week in the seven days from 19 to 25 July, but still 29% higher than June due to the trajectory of COVID-19 outbreaks in mainland China.

According to weekly channel checks conducted by boutique brokerage Bernstein, average daily rate fell from MOP$300 million (US$37.4 million) in the prior week to MOP$257 million (US$32.1 million) over the past week.

For the first 25 days of July combined, GGR is estimated at around MOP$7 billion (US$874 million) with an average daily rate of MOP$280 million (US$34.9 million) 29% higher than June but still 65% lower than July 2019. Bernstein said VIP volume has seen a high 20 percentage point in increase versus June with mass GGR up by around 30%.

Julys month-on-month GGR improvement has been driven by visitation recovery following the June travel disruption in Guangdong caused by a COVID outbreak, Bernstein said.

Two recent cases linked to the new wave of local COVID-19 infections in Nanjing have raised concerns about potentially a new outbreak in Guangdong (so far it is under control with COVID testing of the entire city of Zhuhai slated to be completed on Tuesday).

Some impediments to Macau travel are still in place (aside form overall visa issuance issues), as Zhongshan is now back on Macaus quarantine list (since July 23), together with Nanjing and four other cities.

Nonetheless, the daily visitor arrivals to and departures from Macau averaged 53,300 from 16 to 22 July, which was +8% week-on-week and 52% higher than June daily average.

Bernstein analysts are predicting July GGR to come in around 30% higher than June, when the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported GGR of MOP$6.54 billion (US$817.2 million).